Dollar expected to remain weak – UOB

Heng Koon How, CAIA, Head of Markets Strategy and Senior FX Strategist Peter Chia at UOB Group expect the dollar’s outlook to remain negative for the time being.

Key Quotes

“Our base case remains that the US Dollar will weaken gradually and that many of the prevailing drivers for US Dollar weakness have not changed at all.”

“While the recent news of progress in COVID-19 vaccine is indeed encouraging and very much welcomed, the logistical requirements of distributing the vaccine are challenging and the subsequent rebound in the USD is likely to be temporary short covering.”

“We continue to see Renminbi strength in the months ahead, pushing USD/CNY down to 6.40 by 2Q21. Concurrently, the SGD will continue to strengthen alongside the Renminbi and as a result, we see a lower USD/SGD to 1.32 by 2Q21.”

“However, do note the increasing granularity within the prevailing weak US Dollar backdrop. EUR and AUD may make limited gains as their respective central banks expand on monetary easing. And in Asia, INR and IDR will likely stay weak due to their respective weaker dynamics.”