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10 Apr 2013
Forex Flash: USD/JPY year-end forecast raised to 110.00 – UBS
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The Australian dollar has seen some additional buying pressure over the past few days as investors anticipate outbound portfolio flows from Japan in the wake of the Bank of Japan's policy decision. Overnight however, stronger than expected China imports gave the AUD/USD another boost - especially on the back of the sharp increase in iron ore imports.
According to Research analyst Gareth Berry at UBS, “The BoJ story itself still has further to run in our view and overnight we raised our end-2013 USD/JPY forecast to 110 (from 100 previously). The end-2014 forecast also rises to 120 (up from 110 before). For the next 24 hours though, the policy focus is likely to shift to the Fed. Minutes are due from the March 19-20 FOMC meeting, and the overall tone is likely to be less dovish than usual with a particular focus on the possibility of slowing down the monthly pace of QE3 purchases before year-end.”
Although we have had a weak payrolls report since the minutes were inked, regional Fed presidents Bullard and Williams have already indicated the report does not change their core view that the US recovery will strengthen over the course of this year.
According to Research analyst Gareth Berry at UBS, “The BoJ story itself still has further to run in our view and overnight we raised our end-2013 USD/JPY forecast to 110 (from 100 previously). The end-2014 forecast also rises to 120 (up from 110 before). For the next 24 hours though, the policy focus is likely to shift to the Fed. Minutes are due from the March 19-20 FOMC meeting, and the overall tone is likely to be less dovish than usual with a particular focus on the possibility of slowing down the monthly pace of QE3 purchases before year-end.”
Although we have had a weak payrolls report since the minutes were inked, regional Fed presidents Bullard and Williams have already indicated the report does not change their core view that the US recovery will strengthen over the course of this year.