US-Turkey relationship to deteriorate further – ABN AMRO

Analysts at ABN AMRO point out that the pastor Brunson case has already resulted into sanctions from the US and as a result, Turkey pursued a nationalistic, tit-for-tat response, imposing tariffs on US products.

Key Quotes

“The case is far from resolved as the Izmir court formally rejected an appeal to lift Brunson’s house arrest and travel ban. US Treasury Secretary Steven Munchin announced that further sanctions are “ready to be put in place” if Brunson is not freed.”

“The US-Turkey partnership will be tested by a number of other issues as well. Firstly, there is the issue of US support for the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), which Ankara considers as a terrorist group related to the PKK.”

“Secondly, Turkey’s purchase of S-400 missile defense systems from Russia defies US sanctions on Moscow and emphasizes Turkey’s increasingly cozy relationship with Russian President Putin. This has resulted in President Trump signing a law to prohibit the delivery of F-35s if Turkey follows through with the purchase.”

“Thirdly, there is the Halkbank case. US authorities have accused Halkbank of violating the sanctions against Iran. The size of the fine is still uncertain. Last but not least, in the worst case Turkey may threaten closure of the US Air Force base at Incirlik.”

“On social media, Turks have rallied in favour of the move. So far, we have not seen signs that this will actually happen, but if the US imposes further sanctions against Turkey, it is not a scenario we can exclude.”