AUD/JPY holding in last week's range to kick off the new week

• Monday will be a quiet showing, with Japan off for a long weekend and Australia seeing small-time figures.
• The RBA is caught in a lag spiral, and traders are just waiting to see how much lower the central bank's bar has been set.

The AUD/JPY is trading near 82.65 in quiet early week action, continuing last week's muted atmosphere.

The quiet is expected to drag through Monday with Japanese markets shuttered for the Showa national holiday, and the Aussie is on decidedly softer footing.

Monday brings low-tier Securities Inflation (prev. 0.1%) and Private Sector Credit figures (prev. 0.4%) at 01:00 GMT and 01:30 respectively, while the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) Governor Lowe will be giving a speech during the Reserve Bank's Board Dinner due later. The important news for the Aussie will drop on Tuesday, with the RBA's rate call and rate statement at 04:30 GMT. Little movement is expected from the RBA in rates until well into 2019, but traders will be expected the central bank to lower their future growth forecasts even further, which could open up further weakness in the AUD as the week progresses.

AUD/JPY Levels to watch

Last week's consolidation has priced in a floor for the pair at the 82.40 level, while a bearish push will see the AUD/JPY slide into March's lows near 80.50. The bulls have been struggling to gather momentum from the pair's March bottom, and buyers will have to push the Aussie over last week's highs at the 83.00 major handle before they can challenge Aprils current highs at the 84.00 psychological level.