World trade falls, but not a trade war effect - ING

Analysts at ING noted that a fall in world trade volumes in February following strong growth in January is not the effect of recent tensions in international trade.

Key Quotes:

"World trade volumes fell 0.4% in February, according to data published today by the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Analysis."

"Import demand increased overall, with rises in the US, Japan, Euro Area and emerging economies. This was offset by falls in exports for most economies, with the exception of the US." 

"We can't link this fall in world trade volumes to a "trade war effect". For one thing, the timing doesn't fit."

"The US implemented tariffs on solar panels and washing machines in February, but the escalation of tensions over trade started with the US announcement of steel and aluminium tariffs at the beginning of March. What is more, in the volatile monthly data a 0.4% fall is well within the range of movements seen over the past 18 months, during which world trade growth has been steadily picking up."