US: Expect a +0.2% mom print for PCE inflation – Deutsche Bank

Analysts at Deutsche Bank suggest that as we’ll get the US PCE report for February this afternoon, both their US economists and the market expect a +0.2% mom print for the core, while the headline deflator is also expected to come in at +0.2% mom.

Key Quotes

“The data takes on a little bit more significance in light of the Fed last week raising its inflation forecast above 2% in 2019. Our economists note that a print in line with their expectation would keep the year-over-year reading roughly steady at +1.5% yoy, however the 6m and 3m annualized rates should jump to +2.1% and +2.4% respectively, and so putting a bit of daylight between the run rate and the Fed’s target.”

“Our colleagues also make the point that this is the last inflation data before the wireless services price drop is annualized in the March report, which will boost core CPI and core PCE by about 20bps and 10bps, respectively. Anyway, today’s data is due out at 1.30pm BST.”