When are UK retail sales and how could they affect GBP/USD?

UK retail sales Overview

The UK retail sales data is expected to rebound to 0.1% m/m in October, while on an annualized basis, retail sales are seen ticking lower to -0.6%. In September, retail sales were seen at -0.8% over the month and 1.2% annually. Meanwhile, core retail sales data, excluding fuel, are expected to come in at 0.0% m/m and -0.4% y/y. The report will be published later this session at 0930 GMT.

Deviation impact on GBP/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 10 and 70 pips in deviations up to 3.5 to -1.5, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 100 pips.

How could affect GBP/USD?

A stronger retail sales report could offer fresh impetus to the GBP bulls, taking the rate back above 1.3200 barrier. While GBP/USD could breach 1.3150 support should the data disappoint the markets.

According to Jim Langlands at FX Charts, “further choppy trade near current levels would not really surprise although the UK Retail Sales figures are due today and may cause some volatility.”

Technically, “on the topside, resistance will again be seen at 1.1.3200, while back above 1.1.3213 would find good offers at around 1.3230, beyond which could see a run back to 1.3250 and eventually to 1.3300. On the downside, support will be now seen at 1.3130 and at 1.3115 ahead of the rising trend support/14 Nov low at 1.3075 and then at 1.3000 although I don’t think we head down here today,” Jim adds.

Key notes

UK retail sales and Eurozone CPI in focus – TDS

Analysts at TDS are looking for UK retail sales to post a 0.5% m/m gain in October (mkt 0.2%), supported by warmer than usual weather and stronger activity suggested by the services PMI.

About UK retail sales

The Retail Sales released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.