US: CPI inflation to firm to 1.9% y/y in August - TDS

Analysts at TDS are looking for US CPI inflation to firm to 1.9% y/y in August, reflecting a 0.4% m/m increase in consumer prices (market: 0.3% m/m, 1.8% y/y).

Key Quotes

“Gasoline prices will be a key driver after Hurricane Harvey shuttered refineries along the Gulf coast, though we also expect some upside from core goods and hotel prices. This should allow core CPI (ex. food and energy) to post its first 0.2% gain in six months, though the presence of a strong base-effect should core inflation drift lower to 1.6% from 1.7% (TD and market).”

“Jobless claims for the week of September 9 are the only other release and markets expect a modest drift higher to 300k. While this captures the displaced workers from Hurricane Harvey, we will not see the impact of Hurricane Irma in jobless claims until next week.”