US: Advance goods trade balance to post a deficit of $67.2bn - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura expect the US advance goods trade balance to post a deficit of $67.2bn in June, a slight widening of the trade gap from May ($66.3bn deficit).

Key Quotes

“For June, based on outbound container data at ports, we expect a decline in goods exports after a decent increase in May. For imports, inbound container data suggest that goods imports fell in the month. Yet, on balance, the decline in goods exports may likely have outpaced the decline in imports, widening the trade gap. If realized, our forecast suggests that goods exports were somewhat weak in Q2 compared to Q1. In Q1, a healthy rebound in goods exports with modest increases in imports contributed positively to topline GDP growth. However, for Q2, we expect a moderate drag from net exports.”