US: Key economic reports ahead - Danske Bank

Analysts from Danske Bank take a look into next week economic releases in the United States. 

Key Quotes: 

“In the US, Friday of the coming week brings PCE inflation figures for May. PCE inflation has fallen quite substantially over the past couple of months and PCE core inflation read 1.5% y/y in April. The May print of the CPI figures indicates that headline PCE was unchanged in May (0.0% m/m), implying 1.5% y/y, which is also our estimate. We estimate core PCE increased by 0.1% m/m and 1.5% y/y.”

“On Thursday, we are due to receive the third release of GDP figures for Q1 and we expect no revisions compared with both the first and second releases of 1.2% q/q AR.”

“Chicago PMI for June is due on Friday. Although ISM manufacturing has been declining since the beginning of this year, the Chicago PMI has kept on rising. We expect it to start moving more in line with ISM manufacturing, so we expect a fall to 58.0.”

“On Monday, we are set to receive core capex goods orders for May. The new orders component has levelled off recently, in line with the general cooling of the manufacturing sector. We estimate a slight increase of 0.2% m/m in goods orders in May”

“ Finally, Conference Board consumer confidence for June and the final numbers of University of Michigan consumer confidence for June are due on Tuesday and Friday, respectively. Consumer confidence has been declining since it peaked early in the spring but is still at very high levels. Hence, we estimate Conference Board consumer confidence fell to 116.0 in June.”