RBA: not expected to act on strong Aussie dollar, yet - ANZ

Analysts at ANZ noted that today’s RBA meeting is the main risk event of the day, particularly in light of possible tweaks in RBA language. 

Key Quotes:

"We do not expect any movement in the cash rate today, in line with market expectations. Of particular note will be any comments the Bank makes about the AUD. There was scant commentary on the currency in previous minutes other than to note that the non-mining sectors had been supported by the depreciation over the past couple of years."

"However, AUD/USD was trading around 0.7150 at that time, but is now around 0.76. We therefore think that a tweak to the commentary on the currency in this week’s statement is likely. We expect that the Bank would much prefer to see AUD/USD below 0.70."

"However, we do not see the RBA cutting rates in a mechanical response to the stronger AUD. The Bank is much more likely to wait for evidence that a stronger currency is having a materially detrimental impact on the economy. If it becomes apparent that the strength in the AUD is feeding through into deteriorating business conditions, this would be a concern."

"So far we’ve seen business conditions moderate from a very high level, but remain at elevated levels, suggesting that the recovery in the non-mining sector is continuing. Moreover, we still think that the depreciation cycle in the AUD is not yet over and this will provide a renewed kick for economic growth through 2017."