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17 Sep 2013
What to make from the RBA minutes?
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - After the RBA minutes, the immediate reaction from the market was to buy AUD up to 0.9335, yet the move has faded and the AUD/USD has now lost the 0.930 handle.
RBA Oct cut out of the equation
The RBA reassured, somehow, that there will be no cuts in the very short term. Continuous emphasis in using the line 'no imminent intention to reduce rates' suggests its not coming in October.
However, one line which was first ignored was when the RBA mentioned the exchange rate as an instrument directly linked to rate settings, noting: "Some further decline in the exchange rate would be helpful in achieving such an outcome." The higher the AUD/USD rate goes from now on, the greater the chances of another cut by the RBA might be further down the road.
NAB still foresees one more cut
">NAB Economists, which have been ultra dovish on the RBA since the easing cycle began, are starting to adopt a more cautious approach, noting: "If we are to see another cut (I still think we will as unemployment rate rises) there is probably only one more and its more likely to be in early 2014 than next few months."
AUD/USD technical outlook
Technically, Ewen Chew from Dow Jones, sees a possible bullish pattern forming in AUD/USD: "The pair bobs near the top of the daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance at 0.9319; a Tuesday close above this mark would lend a bullish bias to the Aussie that could lead it toward the top of the Bollinger uptrend channel at 0.9403 and possibly to weekly Bollinger uptrend channel at 0.9574."
RBA Oct cut out of the equation
The RBA reassured, somehow, that there will be no cuts in the very short term. Continuous emphasis in using the line 'no imminent intention to reduce rates' suggests its not coming in October.
However, one line which was first ignored was when the RBA mentioned the exchange rate as an instrument directly linked to rate settings, noting: "Some further decline in the exchange rate would be helpful in achieving such an outcome." The higher the AUD/USD rate goes from now on, the greater the chances of another cut by the RBA might be further down the road.
NAB still foresees one more cut
">NAB Economists, which have been ultra dovish on the RBA since the easing cycle began, are starting to adopt a more cautious approach, noting: "If we are to see another cut (I still think we will as unemployment rate rises) there is probably only one more and its more likely to be in early 2014 than next few months."
AUD/USD technical outlook
Technically, Ewen Chew from Dow Jones, sees a possible bullish pattern forming in AUD/USD: "The pair bobs near the top of the daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance at 0.9319; a Tuesday close above this mark would lend a bullish bias to the Aussie that could lead it toward the top of the Bollinger uptrend channel at 0.9403 and possibly to weekly Bollinger uptrend channel at 0.9574."