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15 Apr 2015
NZD/USD: Macro, model and technical view - Westpac
FXStreet (Bali) - The Westpac FX Strategy Team shares their view on the NZD/USD from a macro, model and technical perspective.
Key Quotes
"Macro: NZD/USD is poised to break its multi-week sideways contracting range in a downward direction. If it does so this week, apart from a resurgent US dollar, the dairy auction on Wednesday could be a factor. US data poses plenty of risk and includes retail sales, industrial production and CPI."
"Model: The model adds slightly to its NZD long, taking it to +9.9%, but with the model’s exposure to AUD leapfrogging that of NZD the model is effectively long AUD/NZD right here. Our signals are generating a negative long term valuation signal for NZD but that is comfortably overcome by positive growth and yield signals."
"Technical: Repeated failures above 0.7600 have tipped short term momentum back to a negative bias. Price remains within its multi-week range, however range lows at 0.7390/0.7410 are at risk."
Key Quotes
"Macro: NZD/USD is poised to break its multi-week sideways contracting range in a downward direction. If it does so this week, apart from a resurgent US dollar, the dairy auction on Wednesday could be a factor. US data poses plenty of risk and includes retail sales, industrial production and CPI."
"Model: The model adds slightly to its NZD long, taking it to +9.9%, but with the model’s exposure to AUD leapfrogging that of NZD the model is effectively long AUD/NZD right here. Our signals are generating a negative long term valuation signal for NZD but that is comfortably overcome by positive growth and yield signals."
"Technical: Repeated failures above 0.7600 have tipped short term momentum back to a negative bias. Price remains within its multi-week range, however range lows at 0.7390/0.7410 are at risk."