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31 Mar 2015
US NFP result might show a 225k gain – Nomura
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Previewing the US Jobs data to be released later this week, Research Analysts at Nomura, expect payrolls to print a 225k figure, average hourly earnings to rise by 0.3% mom and unemployment rate to tick down to 5.4%.
Key Quotes
“Job growth has been very strong recently. Incoming data have tilted negative in March, but on balance still suggest that payrolls increased at a solid pace.”
“Regional manufacturing surveys released thus far in March have come in less optimistic, suggesting that manufacturing jobs probably grew at a slower rate.”
“Initial and continuing jobless claims have remained low throughout the month but were higher in the BLS survey period in March compared with the same period in February.”
“Based on readings of these labor market indicators, we forecast a 220k increase in private payrolls, with a 5k increase in government jobs, implying that total nonfarm payrolls will gain 225k.”
“Given the weaker regional manufacturing surveys, we expect manufacturing employment to grow by 5k, compared with 8k in February.”
“We forecast that average hourly earnings for private employees rose by 0.3% m-o-m in March, indicative of our expectation for a gradual pickup in wage growth as a result of the tightening labor market and also representing some bounce back after the unusually weak number in February.”
“Last, we expect the household survey to show that the unemployment rate ticked down by 0.1pp to 5.4%.”
Key Quotes
“Job growth has been very strong recently. Incoming data have tilted negative in March, but on balance still suggest that payrolls increased at a solid pace.”
“Regional manufacturing surveys released thus far in March have come in less optimistic, suggesting that manufacturing jobs probably grew at a slower rate.”
“Initial and continuing jobless claims have remained low throughout the month but were higher in the BLS survey period in March compared with the same period in February.”
“Based on readings of these labor market indicators, we forecast a 220k increase in private payrolls, with a 5k increase in government jobs, implying that total nonfarm payrolls will gain 225k.”
“Given the weaker regional manufacturing surveys, we expect manufacturing employment to grow by 5k, compared with 8k in February.”
“We forecast that average hourly earnings for private employees rose by 0.3% m-o-m in March, indicative of our expectation for a gradual pickup in wage growth as a result of the tightening labor market and also representing some bounce back after the unusually weak number in February.”
“Last, we expect the household survey to show that the unemployment rate ticked down by 0.1pp to 5.4%.”