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13 Mar 2015
USD to continue to rally through 2015 – Scotiabank
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Camilla Sutton CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, shares the expected view for USD performance into 2015 and 2016 against other majors.
Key Quotes
“Our USD base case is that the USD continues to rally in 2015 against most currencies, but then stabilizes against GBP, CAD, AUD and others in 2016, but continues to gain ground against EUR and JPY.”
“However the core risks to our strong USD outlook are:
1. The impact of low bond yields, currency depreciation and the collapse in oil prices has been underestimated and eventually provide the global stimulus needed to see global GDP boosted; thereby reducing the need for stimulative monetary policy earlier than expected and halting currency depreciation.
2. The U.S. economy is weaker than expected, slowing the pace of Fed interest rate hikes, and thereby easing upward pressure on the USD.”
Key Quotes
“Our USD base case is that the USD continues to rally in 2015 against most currencies, but then stabilizes against GBP, CAD, AUD and others in 2016, but continues to gain ground against EUR and JPY.”
“However the core risks to our strong USD outlook are:
1. The impact of low bond yields, currency depreciation and the collapse in oil prices has been underestimated and eventually provide the global stimulus needed to see global GDP boosted; thereby reducing the need for stimulative monetary policy earlier than expected and halting currency depreciation.
2. The U.S. economy is weaker than expected, slowing the pace of Fed interest rate hikes, and thereby easing upward pressure on the USD.”