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7 Feb 2025

AUD/USD steady as markets brace for US jobs data

  • AUD/USD stands around 0.6280 as markets await US NFP data.
  • Fed expected to hold rates steady; June rate cut remains in focus.
  • Australian Dollar vulnerable ahead of RBA's anticipated rate cut.

The AUD/USD moves around 0.6280 on Friday as investors turned their attention to the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. With expectations set at 170K job additions, down from 256K in December, the data will be pivotal in shaping the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. A stronger-than-expected print could reinforce the Fed’s cautious stance, while weaker figures may fuel rate-cut speculation.

The US labor market remains a focal point for traders, with the Unemployment Rate forecasted to hold steady at 4.1%. A robust reading would strengthen the case for the Fed to maintain its wait-and-see approach on rate adjustments. On the other hand, a weaker print could revive dovish bets, with markets already pricing in a rate cut by June, as per the CME FedWatch tool.

While the US job market takes center stage, the Australian Dollar faces its own challenges. Markets widely anticipate the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to lower the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 4.1% this month. With a rate cut almost certain, the Aussie may struggle to hold onto gains, especially if broader risk sentiment turns negative.

AUD/USD Technical outlook

The AUD/USD pair has gained traction, pushing past the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.6230. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 57, indicating a neutral to mildly bullish bias, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram shows decreasing green bars, suggesting a potential loss of upward momentum. If the pair sustains above 0.6250, further upside toward 0.6320 remains possible.

 

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