USD/CAD: Short-term momentum remains USD bearish – Scotiabank

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed and continues to hold its established range, Shaun Osborne chief FX strategist notes.

Spot continues to hold around support in the low 1.37s

“Solid gains in crude are giving Canadian terms of trade a boost which should be a modest positive for the currency at least—and help keep USDCAD’s fair value estimate tracking slightly lower (to 1.3650 by our estimate this morning).”

“Whether the CAD can take advantage remains to be seen, with external drivers (the broader USD tone, risk appetite) remaining important influences on spot trends and sentiment for now. Positioning (IMM data reflect a still very large net short CAD position) remains a potential positive for the CAD.”

“Spot continues to hold around support (retracement, 40-day MA) in the low 1.37s. While short-term momentum remains USD bearish, the CAD’s failure to make more progress (towards 1.3675) might start to weigh against a further drop in spot in the short run. Resistance is 1.3765/75.”