US Dollar Index: Month-end, seasonal headwinds remain – Scotiabank

USD edges off low but headwinds remain, economists at Scotiabank report.

A short period of consolidation may be in order

The USD slide in the past few days has been sharp and the sell-off is looking over-extended on the charts. A short period of consolidation may be in order but soft data and concessions from the Fed that progress towards their inflation goals is being made will limit the scope for USD gains.

In addition, month-end is looming and strong gains for US markets in November suggest passive hedge rebalancing may drive USD selling in the next few days.

We are also at a point in the calendar where negative seasonal pressure on the USD generally emerges. Bloomberg data shows the DXY has returned an average of -0.86% in December since 1997 (-0.54% since 2007 and -0.64% since 2012).

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