USD/MXN could reach 18.50/18.75 should US Treasury 10-year yields hit 5.00%+ – ING

USD/MXN has traded above the 18.00 level. Economists at ING analyze the pair’s outlook.

Mexican Peso should be supported on dips

There is outside risk that USD/MXN does trade 18.50/18.75 should US Treasury 10-year yields hit 5.00%+, but again we expect to see good demand for Peso on dips.

Regarding Banxico, the market has priced out 75 bps of the expected Banxico easing cycle since the Fed’s hawkish meeting on Sep 20th. No change is priced in policy for the next six months. Keep a close watch of Banxico voting patterns (e.g. any votes for cuts?). However, this seems unlikely while USD/MXN is above 18.

MXN can survive looser fiscal policy into a 2024 election year.