USD/CNH: Can early signs of data improvement and PBoC warning translate into more meaningful pullback? – OCBC

Economists at OCBC Bank analyze USD/CNH outlook.

Upside risks

Higher for longer may undermine risk sentiments in the interim while USD could stay bid overall. 

For CNH, we continue to monitor if early signs of China data improvement and PBoC warning can further translate into more meaningful pullback in USD/CNH. 

For RMB to stabilise fundamentally and recover would still require China economic activities to pick up, confidence to be ‘repaired’ (foreign inflows to return) and USD to turn lower (dependent on timing of Fed pivot). On the latter, the Fed pivot is still nowhere seen for now.